Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital

Key points

– Australian elections tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way.

– With Labor promising higher taxes, larger government and more intervention in the economy the May election presents a starker choice than has been the case since the 1970s & so suggests greater uncertainty than usual.

– Labor’s higher tax and regulation agenda may be a negative for Australian assets, but this could be partly offset in the short term by more targeted fiscal stimulus.

– To return to decent wage gains requires a productivity enhancing reform agenda & much lower unemployment. This election is unlikely to deliver much on the former.

The Federal Election

Some might be forgiven for thinking the wheels have fallen off Australian politics over the past decade with the same number of PM changes as Italy, a fractured Senate and “minority government” at times making sensible visionary long-term policy making hard. With the May 18 Federal Election offering a starker than normal choice political uncertainty may see another leg up. Polls give Labor a clear lead, albeit it’s narrowed a bit.

Elections, the economy & markets in the short term

There is anecdotal evidence that uncertainty around elections causes households and businesses to put some spending decisions on hold – the longer the campaign the greater the risk. Fortunately, this time around it’s a relatively short campaign at five weeks. However, hard evidence regarding the impact of elections on economic indicators is mixed and there is no clear evidence that election uncertainty effects economic growth in election years as a whole. In fact, since 1980 economic growth through election years averaged 3.6% which is greater than average growth of 3.1% over the period as a whole.

In terms of the share market, there is some evidence of it tracking sideways in the run up to elections, which may be because investors don’t like the uncertainty associated with the prospect of a change in policies. The next chart shows Australian share prices from one year prior to six months after federal elections since 1983. This is shown as an average for all elections (but excludes the 1987 and 2007 elections given the global share crash in late 1987 and the start of the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2007), and the periods around the 1983 and 2007 elections, which saw a change of government to Labor, and the 1996 and 2013 elections, which saw a change of government to the Coalition. The chart suggests some evidence of a period of flatlining in the run up to elections, possibly reflecting investor uncertainty, followed by a relief rally.

Australian equity market around election days

Weeks before and after the election

Source: Thomson Reuters, AMP Capital However, the elections resulting in a change of government have seen a mixed picture. Shares rose sharply after the 1983 Labor victory but fell sharply after the 2007 Labor win, with global developments playing a role in both. After the 1996 and 2013 Coalition victories shares were flat to down. So based on historical experience it’s not obvious that a victory by any one party is best for shares in the immediate aftermath, and historically the impact of swings in global shares arguably played a bigger role than the outcomes of federal elections.

The next table shows that 9 out of the 13 elections since 1983 saw shares up 3 months later with an average gain of 4.8%.

Australian shares before and after elections

ElectionWinnerAust shares,
% chg 8 weeks up
to election
Aust shares.
% chg 3 mths
after election
Mar 1983ALP -0.619.8
Dec 1984ALP0.05.4
Jul 1987ALP3.715.9
Mar 1990ALP-7.0-3.5
Mar 1993ALP9.03.2
Mar 1996Coalition2.3-2.0
Oct 1998Coalition-2.611.1
Nov 2001Coalition5.95.4
Oct 2004Coalition5.99.9
Nov 2007ALP-2.9-11.7
Aug 2010ALP0.55.7
Sep 2013Coalition4.6-1.0
Jul 2016Coalition-0.64.5
Average1.44.8

Based on All Ords index. Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital The next chart shows the same analysis for the Australian dollar. In the six months prior to Federal elections there is some evidence the $A experiences a period of softness and choppiness, which is consistent with policy uncertainty, but the magnitude of change is small. On average, the $A has drifted sideways to down slightly after elections.

Australian dollar around election days

Weeks before and after the election

Source: Thomson Reuters, AMP Capital

Political parties and shares

Over the post-war period shares have returned 12.7% pa under Coalition governments and 10.7% pa under Labor governments. It may be argued that the Labor governments led by Whitlam in the 1970s and Rudd and Gillard more recently had the misfortune of severe global bear markets and, if these periods are excluded, the Labor average obviously rises to 15.8% pa, although that may be taking things a bit too far. But certainly, the Hawke/Keating government defied conventional perceptions that conservative governments are always better for shares. Over the Hawke/Keating period from 1983 to 1996 Australian shares returned 17.3% pa, the strongest pace for any post-war Australian government.

Once in government, political parties are usually forced to adopt sensible macro-economic policies if they wish to ensure rising living standards and arguably there has been broad consensus on both sides of politics in recent decades regarding key macro-economic fundamentals – eg, low inflation and free markets.

Policy differences starker than since the 1970s

However, after narrowing in the 80s and 90s with the rationalist reform oriented agenda kicked off by Hawke and Keating, in recent years the policy differences between the Coalition and Labor have been intensifying again to the point that they are now arguably starker than they have been since the 1970s (when there used to be more of a focus around “class warfare”). In part this is consistent with rising interest in populist policies globally which in turn reflects angst over low wages growth, widening inequality, globalisation and automation. Each side of politics is now offering very different visions on the role and size of government. And so the policy uncertainty around this election is greater than usual.

The Coalition is focussed on containing government spending and encouraging economic growth via infrastructure spending, significant personal tax cuts (to return bracket creep and cap taxation revenue at its long term high of around 24% of GDP) and mild economic reforms.

By contrast Labor is focussed on spending more on health and education and in the process allowing the size of the public sector to increase. This is proposed to be funded by “tax increases” including:

  • cancelling the Coalition’s middle and upper income personal tax cuts scheduled for next decade and reimposing the 2% Deficit Repair Levy on incomes above $180,000;
  • restricting negative gearing to new residential property (and no other assets) and halving the capital gains tax discount from January 1 2020;
  • stopping cash refunds for excess franking credits; and
  • a 30% tax rate on distributions from discretionary trusts;

It’s not proposing to spend all the extra revenue this will raise with some earmarked for higher budget surpluses (ie paying down public debt). It’s also promising a sharp lift in the minimum wage towards being a “living wage”, some labour market re-regulation, far more aggressive climate policy (with a 45% reduction in emissions on 2005 levels by 2030, which is almost double the Coalition’s policy) and in relation to superannuation key changes are likely to include a resumption of the increase in the Super Guarantee, lower non-concessional contributions and a lower income threshold for the application of the 30% tax rate on super contributions. Intervention in the economy is likely to be higher under a Labor government.

Perceptions that a more left leaning Labor government will mean bigger government, more regulation and higher taxes and hence act as a drag on productivity and be less business friendly may contribute to more nervousness in shares and the $A than usual around this election. More specifically there are a number of risks:

  • There is a danger that relying on tax hikes on the “top end of town” will dampen incentive in that Australia’s top marginal tax rate of 47% is already high – particularly compared to our neighbours: 33% in NZ; 20% in Singapore; and 15% in HK. Australia’s income tax system is already highly progressive: 1% of taxpayers pay 17% of the total personal income tax take (with an average tax rate of 42%) & the top 10% pay 45% of tax compared to the bottom 50% who pay around 12% (with an average tax rate around 11%).
  • The proposed changes to franking credits even though they only impact around 8% of taxpayers are potentially a negative for stocks with high-franked dividends.
  • The proposed changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing have been estimated to cause a 5 to 12% decline in home prices & a boost to rents of 7 to 12%. This is risky as the property market is already weak. This could further impact construction/property stocks, banks & retail shares.
  • Higher minimum wages and some labour market re-regulation risk higher unemployment, a less flexible labour market and are a negative for hospitality and retail stocks.
  • The focus on economic reform needed to boost productivity looks to have fallen by the wayside in the face of populism – eg, why aren’t we considering injecting more competition into the health sector along with spending more on it?

That said there are some offsets in relation to ALP policies that investors need to allow for:

  • Some ALP policies may not pass the Senate, including those around negative gearing and repealing the middle & upper income tax cuts that have already passed into law.
  • Labor is planning bigger budget surpluses which is positive.
  • Labor policies encouraging “build to rent/affordable housing” are positive, but it’s unclear how much impact they will have.
  • Labor policies focussed on greater spending and tax cuts more targeted to lower saving low income earners may provide more of a short-term boost to economic growth.
  • Labor has a track record of taking sensible advice & responding quickly to help the economy in a crisis (think 1983 and in the GFC). In the short term, this could include a First Home Buyer grant to mute the property downturn.

Concluding comment

The now wider left right divide in Australian politics suggests greater uncertainty going into this election potentially affecting all asset Australian classes. But the bigger concern is the dwindling prospects for productivity enhancing reform, which could be an ongoing dampener on growth in living standards.

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

Many younger Australians are joining the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) movement. Is it right for you?

When you’re starting out in the workforce and building your career, retirement can seem like a long way away. 

And with the age at which you can access your super and age pension creeping up—not to mention the increasing cost of living—you might be steeling yourself for a longer working life. 

The stats don’t lie—Australians are staying in the workforce for longer and any thoughts of retiring early are becoming a distant dream for many of us.i

But there’s a growing movement of younger Australians who believe that by following the right set of rules, it’s possible to achieve early retirement. 

Popularised by US-based blogger Peter Adeney, better known as Mr Money Mustache, the Financial Independence, Retire Early movement looks more closely at what makes us happy.ii

Changing your spending and saving habits

FIRE is all about following an extremely frugal lifestyle with the aim of retiring as early as your 40s…or even your 30s! 

At the core of the FIRE philosophy is changing your attitude towards spending and saving. 

But FIRE is more than just following a budget. It’s a whole-of-life movement that inspires fervent belief in its followers. 

The FIRE movement encourages its followers to build up seven levels of financial safety by:

  • investing in property 
  • investing in dividend-yielding assets 
  • building tax-effective super 
  • working part-time 
  • taking full advantage of social security 
  • looking for entrepreneurial work opportunities 
  • adjusting their lifestyle to live a simpler life.

When it comes to saving, every little bit counts

Like any movement, FIRE inspires some committed followers and some of the lifestyle advice can seem a little extreme—churning credit cards to access freebies, living in a truck to avoid rent and even sifting through bins outside restaurants for free food. 

Now, if the thought of going without your daily latte…not to mention movie outings, fine dining and regular holidays…sounds like a living nightmare, then perhaps FIRE isn’t for you.

But if this sounds too much like hard work, don’t worry. You don’t have to be quite so committed. You could consider making some simple changes to your daily habits to reduce your spending and boost your savings.

  • Understand your money habits. 
  • Make a list of where you could cut back to reduce your waste. 
  • Cycle all or part of the way to work and save on transport costs. 
  • Shop around for the best deal on utilities like gas, electricity and water. 
  • Entertain at home—a monthly Netflix subscription costs less than a single movie ticket.

How to light your FIRE and retire on your terms

Once you’ve ramped up your savings, you could think about being a little more savvy with your money.

  • Bring your super together into one account to avoid paying more than one set of fees.
  • Look at ways to save and invest your money to increase your potential returns. 
  • Consider investing in property…but watch out for aggressive gearing, especially if interest rates change.

You may not retire quite as early as the more committed FIRE followers. But you may just put yourself in the box seat to retire on your own terms. 

And along the way, you might find yourself reappraising your attitude towards money and happiness. 

Australian Bureau of Statistics – Retirement and Retirement Intentions, Australia 

ii https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/about/ 

© AMP Life Limited. First published November 2018

Challenges and financial strategies

Many women are still lagging behind in their longer term super savings.i There are several reasons for this that are often out of a woman’s control. However, women can try certain strategies to improve their financial situation.

What’s holding women back financially?

Women face some very real and specific challenges when planning to put money aside for the future, including: 

Juggling day-to-day demands – Caring for others and managing household activities can make it a challenge to balance work and family life. Research shows that providing for daily family needs was a high priority for 80% of women surveyed and is a key reason women feel limited in committing resources towards their own financial futures.ii

Taking time out of the workforce – Close to half of employed females currently work part time, with those aged 25-44 indicating raising children or looking after family members as their main reason for not working full time.iii Other major reasons include study and not always being able to secure full-time work. This often means earning less, which results in lower employer-paid super contributions. 

Lower salaries – Among full-time workers, men in Australia earn around $17,000 more each year in their base salary. This inequality extends to $27,000 when including super, overtime, bonus payments and other discretionary pay.iv

Lower super savings – The average super balance for women by retirement is $231k, compared with $454k for men6. However, women, on average, live around four years longervi than men and therefore usually need more savings to live off for those additional years. 

Six ways for women to start taking control of their finances

1. Set personal goals – Life goals can be important for wellbeing,vii but they can also provide a focus for financial goals. Make sure life goals are clearly defined, measurable and attainable. If they’re linked with family goals (eg. buying a bigger house), factor in your own financial safeguards too (like being a co-signature on all assets). 

2. Prioritise time for money management – Juggling family life can leave little or no time for anything else. However, putting aside an hour a week to prioritise money management and savings could make a big difference in the long run. Use this time to make budgets, set savings goals, check current spending, and examine accounts to make sure your current savings are working for you. 

3. Get on top of super – Taking control of super today is future self-care. It may help provide more choices and opportunities when you are no longer earning an income. Think about how long your super will last. You can also try completing a lost super search, consider consolidating super accounts, and consider making additional contributions to your super. 

4. Have a safety net – Life doesn’t always go to plan. Research shows women are resilient when it comes to dealing with challenges involving money, including divorce, separation, or illness. However, the impact of these challenges could possibly be reduced by having a safety net in the form of emergency savings or insurance.viii

5. Do some salary research – Understanding the market value of a role arms you with important information that can be used to levy future salary negotiations, or to spark a conversation about a pay increase if a review is overdue. 

6. Consider investing for the future – research shows that women make better investors than men because they spend more time researching investments, are better at matching their goals to their investments, and don’t get panicked in fluctuating markets.ix

If you want help putting strategies in place for your financial future get in touch. 

i RMIT University Research: Women and money in Australia, across the generations, 2016. Page 11 paragraph 5, paragraph 2, 

ii 6 ASIC Money Smart website, Women’s money challenges infographic 

iii Reserve Bank of Australia, The rising share of part time employment, bulletin, September Quarter 2017, page 21, graph 4 & 5. 

iv Australian Government Workplace Gender Equality Agency report – Gender Equality Insights report 2016, Inside Australia’s gender pay gap. Page 13, paragraph 2 

v ASIC Money Smart website, Women’s money challenges infographic 

vi ABS Gender indicators, life expectancy, Feb 2016. 

vii Entrepreneur magazine. Article: Why our brains like short term goals, by Monica Mehta, January 2013 

viii RMIT University Research: Women and money in Australia, across the generations, 2016. Page 12, paragraph 1. 

ix UNSW Business School article. Business Think.Sorry guys, but women make better investors than men. January 16, 2018. Paragraph 2. 

© AMP Life Limited. 
First published November 2018

Whatever your age, if you’re thinking of dabbling in investments like shares, managed funds or cryptocurrencies, here’s a list of common mistakes which are generally worth steering clear of.

1. Failing to plan

When looking to invest, it’s generally wise to think about: 

  • your current position and how much you can realistically afford to invest (consider what other financial priorities you have or existing debts you may be paying off?)
  • your goals and when you want to achieve them
  • implications for the short/medium and long term
  • whether you understand what you’re actually investing in
  • whether you know how to track performance and make adjustments
  • if you want to invest yourself, or with the help of a broker or adviser.

2. Not knowing your risk tolerance

As a general rule, investments that carry more risk are better suited to long-term timeframes, as investment performance can change rapidly and unpredictably. However, being too conservative with your investments may make it harder for you to reach your financial goals. 

Low-risk (or conservative) investment options tend to have lower returns over the long term but can be less likely to lose you money if markets perform badly. 

Medium-risk (or balanced) investment options tend to contain a mix of both low and high-risk assets. These options could be suitable for someone who wants to see their investments grow over time but is still wary of risk. 

High-growth (or aggressive) investment options tend to provide higher returns over the long term but can experience significant losses during market downturns. These types of investments are generally better suited to investors with longer term horizons who can wait out volatile economic cycles. 

3. Thinking investment returns are always guaranteed

The idea of guaranteed returns sounds wonderful, but the truth when it comes to investing is returns are generally not guaranteed. 

There are risks attached to investing, which means while you could make money, you might break even, or lose money should your investments decrease in value. 

On top of that, liquidity, which refers to how quickly your assets can be converted into cash, may be an issue. Depending on what type of investment you hold or what may happen in markets at any point in time, you mightn’t be able to cash in certain investments when you need to. 

4. Putting all your eggs in one basket

Investment diversification can be achieved by investing in a mix of: 

  • asset classes (cash, fixed interest, bonds, property and shares)
  • industries (e.g. finance, mining, health care)
  • markets (e.g. Australia, Asia, the United States).

The reason diversifying may be a good thing is it could help you to level out volatility and risk, as you may be less exposed to a single financial event. 

5. Believing the opinions of every Tom, Dick and Harry

Changing your strategy on the basis of market news may or may not be a good idea. After all, people have made all sorts of market predictions over the years, all of which haven’t necessarily come true. 

On top of that, we all have that one friend that likes to pretend they’re a property, share or general investment guru, who while may come across as persuasive in their market commentary, does not have the qualifications to be giving people advice. 

With that in mind, if you’re looking for guidance, you’re probably better off consulting your financial adviser who may be able to give you a more well-rounded picture of the current climate and the potential advantages and disadvantages you should be across. 

6. Making rash decisions based on fear or excitement

Many investors get caught up in media hype and or fear and buy or sell investments at the top and bottom of the market. 

Like with anything in life, it is easy to get stressed and concerned about the future and act impulsively but like with other things this may not be a smart thing to do. 

While there may be times when active and emotional investing could be profitable, generally a solid strategy and staying on course through market peaks and troughs will result in more positive returns. 

We can help you make investment choices that are right for you. Get in touch today. 

© AMP Life Limited. 
First published December 2018